Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025
000 WTNT45 KNHC 091441 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Jerry this morning, and the radar and flight-level wind data show that the storm remains lopsided with nearly all of the strong winds and convection on the system's east side. The center itself has been difficult to fix, but the data generally support a position that is located south-southeast of the previous track. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt based on a combination of the aircraft data and satellite estimates. The initial motion of Jerry is somewhat uncertain given its poor low-level structure, but our best guess is west-northwestward at 16 kt. A west-northwest to northwest motion should occur today, bringing the center of the storm just east of the northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in Barbuda and possible on some of the other islands, however, given Jerry's asymmetric structure, the strongest winds should pass to the east of the island chain. A turn to the north is expected to occur tomorrow, and that motion should continue through most of the weekend as the storm moves in the flow on the western side of a subtropical ridge. Early next week, a faster eastward or east-northeastward motion is forecast in the mid-latitude westerlies. All of the models show Jerry passing east of Bermuda in 3 or 4 days, and given its expected eastward asymmetry, significant impacts appear unlikely there. The new track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one in the short term, due to the initial position adjustment, but ends up near the previous track from 48 to 120 h. This prediction is in good agreement with the HCCA and Google Deep Mind ensemble mean. Significant strengthening seems unlikely given Jerry's elongated low-level structure. However, the shear is expected to let up some while Jerry remains over warm water and in a moist air mass. Therefore, slow strengthening is predicted during the next few days. Slow weakening seems like a good bet beyond a few days when Jerry is forecast to be moving over slightly cooler SSTs and into stronger shear. The NHC intensity forecast is quite similar to the previous one and is in best agreement with the HCCA model. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Jerry is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to Barbuda later today and tonight, and could bring tropical storm conditions to other portions of the northern Leeward Islands by tonight. 2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands, British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban areas and in steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 15.9N 59.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 17.1N 60.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 19.0N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 21.7N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 24.2N 63.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 26.5N 62.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 28.5N 62.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 31.3N 59.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 31.4N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
