Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 11 2025
006 WTNT45 KNHC 110858 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 500 AM AST Sat Oct 11 2025 Jerry has become slightly better organized this morning. Recent satellite images and AMSR2 passive microwave data show that new deep convection has developed closer to the estimated center position of the storm, with some evidence of curved banding noted in the 89 GHz channel. Based on these developments, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt, which is consistent with the scatterometer data from last night. The wind field remains asymmetric, with tropical-storm-force winds confined to the eastern semicircle of the storm. The estimated initial motion of Jerry is north (005 deg) at 14 kt. A general northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast through the weekend as the storm moves along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. As this feature becomes reoriented to the south of Jerry early next week, the system is forecast to turn eastward as it interacts with a front and moves within the mid-latitude westerlies. The updated NHC forecast trends toward a simple consensus of the global models and was generally adjusted to the left of the previous prediction. There are some indications in satellite imagery that the center of Jerry may still be elongated. Even if the storm is able to maintain a well-defined circulation over the next couple of days, there is little to suggest that Jerry will strengthen. As the storm moves northward, it will remain in a moderate shear environment and eventually move over marginal SSTs. Because of this, the NHC forecast shows gradual weakening through early next week. While Jerry appears likely to merge with a frontal system to its north and become extratropical at some point during the forecast period, there are differences among the global models as to when this will occur. The GFS remains an outlier, and so the NHC prediction favors the earlier frontal interaction shown by the ECMWF and Canadian models. Alternatively, the cyclone could become stretched out and absorbed along the front even sooner than forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are expected to spread toward the Bahamas today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 24.5N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 26.4N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 29.0N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 31.1N 61.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 33.0N 60.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 33.2N 58.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0600Z 32.5N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
