Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 10 2025
584 WTNT45 KNHC 110240 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 10 2025 Jerry's low-level circulation remains rather ill-defined especially on the northwest side of the cyclone, where a surface trough extends northwestward from Jerry. The SHIPS guidance is showing about 15-20 kt of northwesterly deep-layer vertical wind shear in Jerry's environment, which is displacing convection to the southeast of the center. Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms are still occurring over the Virgin Islands, but the rainband that was producing the persistent heavy rain over the northeastern Caribbean Islands has weakened from earlier and is starting to move away. A recent ASCAT pass shows maximum winds around 50 kt, so the intensity has been raised to 50 kt for this advisory, which is slightly higher than the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate. The tropical-storm-force winds are limited to the eastern semicircle of Jerry. The initial motion estimate is northward, or 350 degrees at 13 kt. This general motion should continue through Saturday night because a north-south-oriented mid-level ridge is currently located to the east of the cyclone. By Sunday night, Jerry should turn eastward as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. Only minor adjustments have been made to the previous NHC track forecast, which generally lies in between the simple and corrected consensus models. Jerry is likely to continue battling moderate to strong shear during the next couple of days, and global model fields (with the exception of the GFS) suggest that the storm will maintain an elongated circulation through this period. Although the shear might decrease a bit after 48 hours, at that point Jerry will be moving over more marginal sea surface temperatures and into a more stable environment. No changes were made to the previous NHC intensity forecast, which is near, or slightly below the middle of the guidance envelope. The global model fields (with the exception of the GFS) show Jerry interacting with a front by Sunday night, and the NHC forecast shows Jerry becoming post-tropical by Monday evening, with dissipation along the front a day or two later. The GFS maintains Jerry as a tropical cyclone through day 5, but that solution is considered an outlier. It should be noted that the circulation of Jerry is quite ill-defined on the northwest side. Therefore, it is possible that Jerry could dissipate at any time this weekend. However, given that most of the global and regional models hold on to the circulation into Sunday, the most likely scenario seems to be that Jerry will stick around for at least another 2 days or so until it begins interacting with the front. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Jerry will lift north of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico overnight. As a result, the risk for flash flooding will diminish. 2. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are expected to spread toward the Bahamas by Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 22.7N 63.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 24.6N 63.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 27.4N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 29.6N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 31.3N 60.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 32.0N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 31.4N 56.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 15/0000Z 29.8N 51.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
