Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
031 WTNT34 KNHC 291742 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025 ...IMELDA STARTING TO MOVE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 77.3W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Portions of the Northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, the Abacos, Grand Bahama Island and the surrounding keys. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within 12 hours. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Imelda. Hurricane watches could be required for the island as soon as this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 77.3 West. Imelda is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general northward motion is expected to continue today. On Tuesday, Imelda is expected to turn sharply to the east-northeast. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to start moving away from the northwestern Bahamas this afternoon and then turn east-northeastward, moving away from the southeastern U.S. but approach the island of Bermuda by the middle part of this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecasted over the next several days, and Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated by Air Force Reconnaissance dropsonde data is is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the northwestern Bahamas and should continue through the afternoon. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across the northwest Bahamas through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local maxima of 4 inches are expected through Tuesday across northeast Florida, coastal South Carolina, and coastal sections of southeast North Carolina. This rainfall could result in isolated flash and urban flooding. As Imelda passes near Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches – 50 to 100 mm – of rainfall is expected from Wednesday into Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Imelda, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles... Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina...1 to 2 ft SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane Humberto are affecting the Bahamas and will spread to much of the east coast of the U.S. early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
