In Kyiv, I found a mood of confidence. Ukrainians know that Russia is creaking and that Europe has their back
Discussions are said to be under way as to which former European heavyweights should represent the EU in any peace talks with Russia. Angela Merkel, Mario Draghi and Sauli Niinistö, the former president of Finland, are names that have cropped up as potential envoys. While meaningless in substance, because there is no negotiation in sight, the story points to a wider truth about the Ukraine war and Europe’s role.
Like other European conversations on Ukraine before it, this one has an abstract flavour. Europe planned, for instance, to send a “reassurance force” to Ukraine in the event of a Donald Trump-mediated ceasefire. A possible maritime initiative in the strait of Hormuz, should a deal be reached between the US, Israel and Iran, bringing the war there to a definitive end, is in the works. None of these plans have been implemented, because the scenarios on which they are based have not materialised. Likewise, there is no imminent negotiation with Russia that an envoy could be dispatched to. The war in Ukraine is raging on, as underlined by Russia’s bombardment of Kyiv at the weekend, which involved its hypersonic “Oreshnik” ballistic missile, capable of carrying nuclear warheads. And, as Lithuanians rushing to shelters after a drone alert remind us, a wider hybrid war between Russia and Europe is already under way.
Nathalie Tocci is a Guardian Europe columnist
