With the upcoming Republican primary runoff elections just around the corner, a new InsiderAdvantage poll reveals tight but clear advantages for the leading contenders in both the high-stakes gubernatorial and U.S. Senate contests.
The survey, which sampled 800 likely Republican runoff voters between May 20 and May 21, shows Lt. Gov. Burt Jones leading businessman Rick Jackson in the race for the governor’s mansion, while Congressman Mike Collins maintains a five-point cushion over challenger Derek Dooley for the U.S. Senate nomination.
The poll utilizes a mixed-mode methodology combining text-to-web and online panel responses, weighted for age, race, and gender. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46%.
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The race for governor: Jones holds the advantage
In the battle to succeed outgoing Gov. Brian Kemp, Burt Jones sits just shy of the 50% mark, leading Rick Jackson 48% to 42%. Ten percent of likely voters remain undecided.
Jones, who secured a coveted endorsement from former President Donald Trump, appears to be leveraging that national MAGA alignment to consolidate support among the party’s conservative base. However, Jackson remains within striking distance as the campaign enters its final, critical stretch.
U.S. Senate: Collins leads, but undecideds loom large
The race to secure the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate presents a similar dynamic. U.S. Representative Mike Collins leads Derek Dooley 46% to 41%, with a significant 13% of voters still professing to be undecided.
Collins’ advantage stems from deep-rooted, long-term relationships within the state’s grassroots Republican infrastructure. Yet, the double-digit block of undecided voters leaves an opening for Dooley to close the gap if he can successfully mobilize late-deciding voters.
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Low turnout puts premium on ground game
InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery expects overall voter participation to be remarkably low, a common characteristic of standalone summer runoff elections. According to Towery, a low-turnout environment fundamentally shifts campaign strategy away from broad media blitzes and directly toward precision voter mobilization.
“I expect this runoff to have very light voter participation,” Towery said. “This means that candidates must concentrate on hardcore Republican voters who follow politics and almost always vote.”
Towery noted that different factions of institutional power within the Georgia GOP are actively clashing in these races, creating a fascinating proxy war between national endorsements and localized political machines.
“Jones certainly has the edge in his race due to Donald Trump’s endorsement,” Towery analyzed. “Collins likely has the edge in his race due to his longtime participation in the Georgia GOP. But that might be countered by Governor Kemp’s strong political operation and Kemp’s endorsement.”
With early voting windows narrowing, Towery believes the final outcome in both races will ultimately depend on which campaign can more effectively drag their core, hyper-reliable voters to the ballot box.
