Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
000 WTNT34 KNHC 271449 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 76.2W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador * Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand Bahama Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of the United States from Florida to North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 76.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas this weekend and approach the southeast U.S. coast early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight and a hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas beginning later today or early Sunday and in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Monday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 16 inches possible in eastern Cuba, and 4 to 8 inches of rain in the Bahamas. Across Hispaniola, Jamaica, and portions of central and southern Cuba, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. Moisture from Tropical Depression Nine will lead to a threat of heavy rainfall well to the north from Coastal Georgia through the Carolinas and into the southern Mid-Atlantic states into early next week which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with the system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by both this system and Hurricane Humberto will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to portions of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
