A team brash enough to fire their coach, who never play on grass, who demanded to appear on SECN, who know this is a trap game, and who probably won’t even bring fresh cranberries. What, me worry?
Here’s what I’m NOT worried about when Georgia faces off against the Bayonnet-wielding Bay Staters:
1. The Minutemen senior class needs to touch grass. They’ve only played on grass 1 time this season, and lost. I realize the growing season is long over in their neck of the woods, but you can’t keep grass alive until Thanksgiving? Or play teams a little further south with regularity? Anyway, their senior class has played a total of 8 games (2021-2024) on grass and lost them all. Maybe worse, they’ve had a single score or worse 5 of those games. I mean, they’re not good offensively anyway, but this seems especially not good.
2. The Bulldog senior class has a chance to do something special. They currently have a win/loss record of 50-4, and with a win can set the school mark for most wins by a class. I haven’t mathed up the winning percentages in comparison to the other classes, but this is still a great accomplishment from Damn Good Dawgs.
3. Burning redshirts. The following players have appeared in 3 games thus far in 2024: Chauncy Bowens, Chris Peal, Jake Pope, Ellis Robinson, Colton Heinrich. Robinson and Bowens are probably the splashiest of these, and I have to believe with the injuries to our running backs that Bowens will again be utilized against UMass.
With the expected nature of the opponent this week, nagging injuries left and right, and at least 2 more football games, more players will be pressed into action. Let’s just hope no Georgia player decides to go the route of MJ Morris or Bear Alexander.
Now forgive me, as I was weaned at the nipple of Larry Munson’s scratch so here’s what does worry me about Massholes:
1. Over 200 yards rushing. As Georgia and Carson Beck have proven, we don’t have to rack up 2 bills to win, but the record is pretty good when we do. Since 2017, Georgia is 32-11 when the ground game fails to tally 200. That’s a 74.4% success rate, or winning 3 of every 4 games and losing 1 out of 4. Not bad. But Georgia’s record since 2017 when over 200 yards? Perfect. 41-0.
In fact, under Kirby Smart, only twice has UGA lost the game when eclipsing 200 yards rushing: the Ole Miss schellacking and the Georgia Tech debacle, both in Smart’s first season in 2016. I long for the days when that was almost a given, or at least more likely than not. Georgia hasn’t reached this mark at all in 2024, having done it 5 times last season, and 8 times in 2022.
2. Third down conversions. The Bulldog offense is only converting just over 40% of its 3rd down attempts. Now when they convert is also critical, and Beck/Bobo did a much better job on crucial 3rd downs against Tennessee. Yet the 8 of 14 stat is the first time over 50% for a game since Auburn, and only the 2nd time all year. This ranks 64th in the nation – not exactly where I expect a Georgia offense to be. It was over 55% last year, and 51% in 2022.
The Bulldog defense hasn’t exactly hunkered down of late either. There was a nice stretch in the middle of the season were teams were held under 25%. But the Ole Miss game, which actually could have been worse, and Tennessee’s barrage of 3rd down conversions really impacted the metrics.
Georgia is still ranked 20th in the nation in 3rd down defense, but 6th in the conference. I think the bigger point is that the banged up and patched together Bulldog offense needs a few more possessions than usual, so we need the defense to get some earlier stops and give Beck a few more chances to show off his arm sleeve.
3. I miss Will Muschamp. Before the Secret Agent officially was called off his mission, the Georgia pass defense was not up to snuff. In 2020, the Bulldogs allowed 15 passing touchdowns, a 65% completion rate, and an opposing QBR of 132. In 2021, with Boom on staff, the percentage dropped to 56%, only 10 scores, and a QBR of 103. 2022 was also a good year if you look deeper into the numbers: 57% completion rate, 15 touchdown passes, and a QB rating of 116 (note 7 of those TDs are from 2 games: LSU in that SECCG where we were up and just trying to get to the finish line, and from an Ohio Commonwealth College, who brandished a QB that won the NFL offensive rookie of the year 12 months later).
2023 was more of the same, allowing less than 55% completions, 13 TDs over 14 games, and a QBR of 106. This season the completion percentage is back up to 58% and a QBR allowed over 117. I guess I miss Fran Brown too.
Call me crazy, just don’t call me late for dinner. Sound off in the comments below what worries you about the Bulldogs of Georgia versus the Minutemen of Massachusetts. And as always…
GO ‘DAWGS!!!
