The NFL moves on to Week 12, a week out from the Thanksgiving holiday slate. Last week was a light one for upsets. The Jaguars thumped the Chargers in a bit of a surprise, and the Falcons blew it against the Panthers, but for the most part the favorites were handling their business. Some would call Broncos over Chiefs a bit of an upset, but your mileage may vary in that regard.
This week brings some interesting matchups that will continue to shape an evolving playoff picture. The most fascinating game on the slate might be Colts-Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs division-title streak is looking like it might end, and they’re looking nothing like the team we’ve seen in recent years. They face a Colts squad that is impressing and might claim the top seed in the league. I’m not ready to bury the Chiefs yet, so we’ll see what this brings.
Last week in my Survivor advice column, I almost lost my safe pick, but the Texans took care of business by the end of the game. Otherwise, it was a fairly chalk-ish weekend.
On to my Week 12 picks!
Safest picks
Ravens over Jets
Lions over Giants
Seahawks over Titans
In my Survivor pools, these three have been used fairly extensively to date. If you have not used them yet, now is as good a time as any. All three are double digit favorites. If I were to rank the three games, I’d have Seahawks as the worst choice just because Sam Darnold might be turning into a bit of a pumpkin. However, they’re playing an awful Titans team, so it’s hard to not view them as safe. If you’re looking to save one of these three, the Ravens host the Bengals next week and are a double-digit favorite on the lookahead line.
Best value picks
Lions over Giants
You could use the Lions in Week 14 at home against the Cowboys, but you never know what Dallas team will show up. Similarly, it’s unclear what to make of the Steelers when they come to Detroit in Week 16. Now is the time to use Detroit if you haven’t yet.
Trap picks
Rams over Buccaneers
Packers over Vikings
The Bucs are a dangerous team. LA might be the best team in the NFC, but this is the kind of game that could trip them up. Plus, there is more value for the Rams next week at Carolina.
If you haven’t used the Packers yet, this might be your last best option. And yet, while the Packers are better than the Vikings by a long shot, this is a divisional game I would avoid.
