Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 22 2025
716
FONT13 KNHC 222038
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
2100 UTC WED OCT 22 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
PT GALLINAS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 2(12)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 13(16) 18(34) 8(42)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
KINGSTON 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 25(32) 21(53) 6(59)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 4(22)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 7(19) 3(22)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 9(15) 5(20) 3(23)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
CAPE BEATA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 7(13) 4(17) 2(19)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
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FORECASTER PAPIN