Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
453 WTNT33 KNHC 231739 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025 ...MELISSA CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWEST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST COAST OF HAITI, WITH HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED FOR HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 75.3W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the southern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 75.3 West. Melissa is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northward motion is forecast during the next day or two, followed by a westward turn over the weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by more rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days and a major hurricane by the end of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti and Jamaica beginning on late Friday or Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Haiti and Jamaica earlier on Friday. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 6 to 12 inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Sunday. However, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in the exact totals. Regardless, significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected. Across northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Sunday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through Sunday. Flooding impacts may increase across western Jamaica next week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
