Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 14 2025
000 WTNT42 KNHC 141435 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 14 2025 Lorenzo remains a poorly organized storm over the tropical central Atlantic. The system is producing a few clusters of deep convection, one of which is currently over the low-level center. The satellite intensity estimates have come down and now range from 30 to 39 kt. In addition, very recent ASCAT passes show peak winds of about 35 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt. Lorenzo continues to move northwestward at 13 kt. A turn to the north is expected later today as the storm moves into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. On Wednesday, the storm is likely to turn northeastward when it moves in the flow between an approaching mid-to upper-level trough and the subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. If the storm survives, the system could turn eastward or southeastward this weekend on the northern periphery of the ridge. The track guidance is in fair agreement, and no big changes were made to the previous prediction. The storm is currently embedded in a sheared and dry environment, and those conditions are expected to persist during the next several days. The model guidance shows little to no strengthening. In fact, most of the global models show Lorenzo remaining lopsided, and then opening up into a trough within the next few days. Based on a combination of the models and the lower initial intensity, the NHC intensity forecast has again been nudged downward, and now shows dissipation occurring by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.2N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 19.6N 45.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 22.0N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 24.7N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 27.3N 39.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 29.4N 35.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 29.9N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
