Postgame update: The Chiefs have officially been eliminated from playoff contention. The Chiefs lost to the Chargers 16-13. Additionally, the Bills beat the Patriots 35-31, the Jaguars beat the Jets 48-20, and the Texans beat the Cardinals 40-20. Kansas City will spend the playoffs at home this year.
An incredible run of success in the NFL could end today.
The Kansas City Chiefs begin Week 15 facing something they have not stared down in years: Elimination from playoff contention. Kansas City enters Week 15 sitting at 6-7 in the standings, out of a playoff spot and in third place in the AFC West.
And depending on what happens today, the Chiefs could be officially eliminated from playoff contention.
Here is what needs to happen for Kansas City to be eliminated.
Chiefs elimination scenarios in Week 15
Thankfully for the Kansas City Chiefs, a loss to the Los Angeles Chargers today is not enough to eliminate them from playoff contention.
However, a loss coupled with a few other results could knock the Chiefs out of the picture.
At the outset, this time of year you need to have NFL Playoff Scenarios bookmarked, as they are an incredible resource. As they point out, there are 37 different scenarios where the Chiefs could be eliminated this weekend. Those scenarios include some wild results involving combined wins from teams around the league, that would lead to the Chiefs losing tiebreakers.
But the most straightforward way Kansas City can be eliminated from playoff contention this week? If they lose to the Chargers, they are at risk. Pair that result with a Buffalo Bills win or tie against the New England Patriots, a Jacksonville Jaguars win or tie against the New York Jets, and a Houston Texans win against the Arizona Cardinals, and the Chiefs are eliminated.
Those are three very possible results.
Another potential scenario that would knock the Chiefs out is a loss to the Chargers, a Bills win or tie against New England, a Jacksonville win or tie against the Jets, and an Indianapolis Colts win over the Seattle Seahawks. Or if the Chiefs lose to the Chargers, the Bills win or tie against the Patriots, the Texans win against the Cardinals, and the Colts win or tie against Seattle, the Chiefs are out.
To keep it simple, we will list a handful of the scenarios. For the full list, including the more complicated scenarios, we strongly recommend checking out NFL Playoff Scenarios.
The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs if:
- The Chiefs lose to the Chargers, the Bills win or tie against New England, the Jaguars win or tie against the Jets, and the Texans win against the Cardinals, OR
- The Chiefs lose to the Chargers, the Bills win or tie against New England, the Jaguars win or tie against the Jets, the Texans tie against the Cardinals, and the Colts tie against the Seahawks, OR
- The Chiefs lose to the Chargers, the Bills win or tie against New England, the Jaguars win or tie against the Jets, and the Colts beat the Seahawks, OR
- The Chiefs lose to the Chargers, the Bills win or tie against New England, the Texans beat the Cardinals, and the Colts win or tie against the Seahawks, OR
- The Chiefs lose to the Chargers, the Bills win or tie against New England, the Miami Dolphins lose or tie to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football, the Baltimore Ravens tie the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Carolina Panthers beat the New Orleans Saints, OR
- The Chiefs lose to the Chargers, the Bills tie the Patriots, the Texans beat the Cardinals, the Dolphins tie the Steelers, the Ravens tie the Bengals, the Green Bay Packers defeat the Denver Broncos, the Minnesota Vikings defeat the Dallas Cowboys, and the Cleveland Browns defeat the Chicago Bears
Again, these are the more straightforward scenarios. There are more complex scenarios that involve combined wins from various teams, or the Chiefs game against the Chargers finishing in a tie.
Chiefs recent playoff success
If the Chiefs are indeed eliminated today, or later this season, it would bring to an end an incredible run of success under Andy Reid and into the Patrick Mahomes era.
Kansas City last missed the playoffs during the 2014 season. Starting with the 2018 campaign, Mahomes’ first full season as the starter, the Chiefs have advanced to at least the AFC Championship Game in every single year. During that stretch, Kansas City has won three Super Bowl titles, with wins in Super Bowl LIV, Super Bowl LVII, and Super Bowl LVIII.
If they somehow advance to Super Bowl LX, they would match the Bills with four consecutive Super Bowl appearances.
