For a brief moment Sunday at Gillette Stadium, it looked as if Drake Maye had locked up an MVP trophy in unlikely fashion.
With a block.
Under ten minutes remained in the fourth quarter and the New England Patriots were reeling. After racing out to a 21-0 lead over the visiting Buffalo Bills, and enjoying a 24-7 advantage at halftime, New England watched as Josh Allen and Company scored 21 unanswered points to take a 28-24 lead in the fourth quarter. Gillette Stadium was stunned into silence. Travis Scott was in the Owner’s Box, asking Robert Kraft what was happening. Fans in the stands, if they could get their frozen fingers to work, were removing “AFC East Champions” gear from their virtual shopping carts.
Then Drake Maye threw the block of his life, and order seemed restored:
On the very next play from scrimmage, a simple toss play to the right looked doomed from the start. Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson was stacked up behind the line of scrimmage, and for a moment it looked like New England was facing 2nd and long.
Then Henderson cut back against the flow of the play, and picked up a lead blocker deep in Buffalo territory. None other than Maye, who topped 20 miles per hour as he raced downfield to pave the way for Henderson. The 65-yard touchdown gave the Patriots the lead once more, and fans started putting those items back in those virtual shopping carts.
It was still too soon.
Because last year’s MVP, and a revamped Bills offense, would get another shot.
On their next possession, Buffalo went right down the field on a 65-yard touchdown drive that took just seven plays. Not one of those plays went for a loss, and the drive included a pair of 12-yard completions and was capped off by an 11-yard touchdown run from James Cook.
Final score: Buffalo 35, New England 31.
In the days leading up to Sunday’s AFC East clash, various themes emerged. One of those focused on the difference in Buffalo’s offense between their Week 5 meeting, and the current version of the Bills’ passing attack. Back when these two teams met in Week 5, a game the Patriots won by three, only 11 of Allen’s 31 passing attempts came within five yards of the line of scrimmage, or 35.4%. Here is Allen’s passing chart from that meeting:
This was an offense that, earlier in the year, was run through the wide receivers in the vertical passing game.
But in the weeks leading up to Sunday, Buffalo’s passing offense took a different shape. As the Bills defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals to keep pace with New England in the AFC East, their passing game took on a more horizontal element, featuring the running backs and tight ends. During those two wins 33 of Allen’s 52 passing attempts — 63.4% — came within five yards of the line of scrimmage.
Now, take a look at his passing chart from Sunday against New England:
Of his 28 passing attempts, 16 of them came within five yards of the line of scrimmage (or deeper behind the line of scrimmage in the case of two of his attempts). That works out to … checks math … 57.1% of his passing attempts.
Again, a much different offense than the one New England saw back in Week 5.
And of his three touchdown passes, two came on throws within five yards of the line of scrimmage (although both of those plays came in the low red zone where there is not much real estate to work with), with the first coming to running back James Cook out of the backfield on a perfect design against man coverage:
The second touchdown? Again a play in the low red zone, with Allen coming out of a run fake to hit tight end Dawson Knox in the flat to close Buffalo to within ten:
As for the third touchdown, it came on 3rd and 14 early in the fourth quarter, and while the Bills ran five verticals on the play, Allen looked to …. tight end Knox over the middle.
We’ll return to that play in a moment.
All told, on the 26 passes where a receiver was targeted on Sunday, 15 of those went to a running back or a wide receiver.
Beyond where the throws are going in the passing game, there is also how the Bills are dressing up their passing game. Through the first five weeks of the season, according to charting data from Pro Football Focus, Allen was eighth in the NFL in passing attempts using play-action.
Starting in Week 6, Allen has ranked fourth in passing attempts on play-action designs.
That leads us to another element of the current Bills offense: Their rushing attack. During the first half of Sunday’s game, Buffalo managed just 53 total rushing yards.
They finished the day with 168 rushing yards, coming on 37 rushing attempts, for an average of 4.5 yards per carry. On the season the Bills are second in the NFL in yards per attempt (5.0), first in the NFL in yards per game (158.5), fourth in the NFL in Expected Points added per Rush, and fourth in the league in rushing Success Rate. And as the second half wore on Sunday Cook and the Bills rushing attack — working against a New England defense that seemed to be on the field the entire second half — continued to churn out yards in chunks.
The final piece to the puzzle? The use of 13 offensive personnel. Buffalo has found incredible success with three tight ends on the field. The Los Angeles Rams lead the way this year with 213 offensive plays out of 13 personnel, accounting for 24.62% of their offensive snaps according to Sumer Sports, with a staggering EPA of 54.37 on those snaps. That includes an EPA/Pass of 0.45 and an EPA/Rush of 0.14.
While Buffalo has not used 13 offensive personnel at the same rate — the Bills have run 42 plays out of that personnel package — they are second to only the Rams with an EPA/Play of 17.60 using 13 personnel. That includes an EPA/Pass of 0.95 out of 13 personnel (best in the NFL) and an EPA/Rush of 0.24 (second in the NFL).
And beyond all that, the Bills still have a quarterback that can do this:
This throw to Knox for a touchdown is an absolute rocket.
As far as Ace cards go, that is not a bad one to have in your hand if you are Joe Brady.
Nor is this one:
Third and short? Dial up a designed run for your battering ram of a quarterback who, in addition to having a rocket right arm, can be arguably your most effective runner in situations like this one.
Put the pieces together and you have a Bills offense that is becoming dangerous at just the right time.
And a team that is looking like they could make a very deep playoff run in a wide-open AFC.
