Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
000 WTNT33 KNHC 262357 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY TO BEGIN TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 77.3W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince * Cuban province of Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa. Additional watches and warnings could be required later tonight or tomorrow. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 77.3 West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica on Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional intensification is forecast over the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 933 mb (27.55 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in Jamaica, with hurricane conditions expected to begin by Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Eastern Cuba by Tuesday afternoon, with Hurricane conditions expected to begin in the hurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in the warning area in Haiti. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Haiti. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches for southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with local storm total maxima of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely. For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with local amounts to 20 inches, is expected by Monday into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides. Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next several days, and In the Bahamas and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
