Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
000 WTNT43 KNHC 270851 TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 An ongoing Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been measuring progressively higher winds and lower central pressures during each of its passes through Melissa's eye. On the third and final pass, the crew measured a peak flight-level wind of 154 kt and a central pressure of 917 mb. This flight-level wind reduces to about 140 kt, making Melissa a category 5 hurricane. The hurricane's eye is 10 n mi wide with a temperature of 20 degrees Celsius, while the surrounding convection has cloud top temperatures as cold as -86 degrees Celsius. Melissa appears to be gaining some latitude again, but the 12-hour average motion is westward (275 degrees) at 3 kt. A painstakingly slow turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next 24 hours, and Melissa is forecast to make landfall on the south coast of Jamaica Tuesday morning and emerge off the north coast by Tuesday afternoon. A trough moving across the southeastern United States is then expected to cause Melissa to turn northeastward and accelerate, crossing southeastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday, and then reaching the vicinity of Bermuda Thursday night. The part of the forecast track while Melissa is over the western Atlantic has been adjusted a bit westward, following the latest Google DeepMind and European model solutions. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24 hours while Melissa is south of Jamaica over waters of high oceanic heat content and in an environment of relatively low wind shear. Fluctuations in intensity are also possible during this period due to internal dynamics related to eyewall replacements, which are generally difficult to forecast. There's really no practical difference in Melissa making landfall in Jamaica at category 4 or 5 intensity, since both categories can produce catastrophic wind damage. In addition, winds in the mountains of Jamaica are likely to be higher than the winds at sea level, and are likely to add to the seriousness of the situation. Although interaction with Jamaica will lead to some weakening, Melissa is expected to reach southeastern Cuba as a major hurricane, and will also move across the southeastern Bahamas and be near Bermuda as a hurricane. Some of the guidance shows a flatlining of the intensity while Melissa is moving over the southwestern Atlantic, and the NHC forecast has been bumped up during that time accordingly. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Do not venture out of your safe shelter. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely today through Tuesday. Destructive winds, especially in the mountains, will begin by this evening, leading to extensive infrastructural damage, long-lasting power and communication outages, and isolated communities. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected along the southern coast through Tuesday. 2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected late Tuesday and Wednesday. 3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall with life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides is expected beginning today. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Preparations should be rushed to completion. 4. Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are possible on Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 16.4N 77.8W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 16.6N 78.1W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 17.3N 78.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 18.5N 77.3W 115 KT 130 MPH...NORTH COAST OF JAMAICA 48H 29/0600Z 20.1N 76.0W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER SE CUBA 60H 29/1800Z 22.1N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR SE BAHAMAS 72H 30/0600Z 24.7N 72.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 32.3N 65.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR BERMUDA 120H 01/0600Z 41.4N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg/Hagen
