Thursday Night Football was billed as a “must win” for the Cowboys and Lions, which wasn’t entirely accurate. Both teams had a chance of making the playoffs, even with a loss — but it was going to be much, much more difficult to find a way into the postseason.
That’s especially true of the Cowboys, who really needed to beat the Lions to reasonably keep their playoff hopes alive, but stunningly there is still one path that remains for Dallas to make the playoffs despite their mediocre 6-6-1 record so far. Everything hinges on the Philadelphia Eagles.
As it stands the Cowboys have just a 7% chance of making the playoffs after the loss. In order to make the playoffs the first step is on them, winning out their remaining games — which is highly possible considering the mediocre opponents they face to close out the season
- vs. Vikings (4-8)
- at Chargers (8-4)
- at Commanders (3-9)
- at Giants (3-9)
The Chargers are obviously the biggest challenge here, but the Commanders also represent a possible trap game. It’s easy to write off Washington, but Jayden Daniels has been a full practice participant this week and could suit up when these teams meet. A lot depends there on whether Washington decides to shut down Daniels for the year, or sees value in him getting reps — and that could turn the Commanders game into an opportunity to hurt their division rival on the way out.
If we assume the Cowboys can win out, they will finish their season at 10-6-1, with a 46% chance of making the playoffs. It’s here that the Eagles come in.
Right now Philadelphia is 8-4 with a 96% chance of making the playoffs. Even if they lose, their odds will only drop to 93%. In order for the Cowboys to pass the Eagles by winning the NFC East they will need Philly to lose three of their remaining five games. The problem is that the Eagles’ remaining games are:
- at Chargers (8-4)
- vs. Raiders (2-10)
- at Commanders (3-9)
- at Bills (8-4)
- vs. Commanders (3-9)
The most realistic scenario here would be if the Eagles lose to the Chargers this week, lose to the Bills in Week 17, and split their series with the Commanders — who would almost assuredly need Daniels to be back and competing to give them a shot.
There are two other potential scenarios where the Cowboys can make the playoffs even if they don’t win the NFC East. These involve getting a Wild Card by the Bears, Seahawks, Packers, Lions or 49ers losing out with Dallas winning at least three of their remaining games.
This won’t happen if we’re being realistic. The best path for Dallas is to win their games, and root against literally everyone playing the Eagles — which should be easy for Cowboys fans to do.
