Has the race for the 2025 Heisman Trophy been whittled down to just four quarterbacks?
According to the most recent odds at FanDuel, that is exactly the case, with Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza a narrow favorite over Ohio State passer Julian Sayin, followed by Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed and Alabama signal caller Ty Simpson.
Let’s rank those four by how likely they are to take home the hardware, along with a few longshots that still have a viable path to New York City.
The Heisman favorites
Let’s start by looking at those four quarterbacks that have edged away from the field.
1. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
After his voice went supersonic, Gus Johnson declared that Fernando Mendoza’s game-winning touchdown pass to Omar Cooper against Penn State last Saturday was his Heisman moment.
He might be right.
With their undefeated season on the line in a hostile environment, Mendoza drove Indiana nearly the length of the field to deliver a comeback win in the closing seconds over Penn State. The Hoosiers are now 10-0 — the only 10-0 team in the nation — and have a clear path to at least the Big Ten Championship Game. Upcoming games against Wisconsin and Purdue should help Mendoza continue his level of production (Wisconsin has the 41st-ranked defense in the nation while the Boilermakers check in at 101 overall) and if he rolls into the Big Ten title game as the quarterback of a 12-0 team, the Heisman might be his before that game even begins.
That game is slated for December 6, with Heisman balloting opening on December 1. While ballots are due on December 8, there is certainly a scenario where Mendoza wins the early vote before the Big Ten Championship Game kicks off.
Plus, if Indiana finishes with an undefeated record, it will be the first time since 1945. Heisman voters love storylines.
2. Marcel Reed, QB, Texas A&M
As noted above, Mendoza is a narrow favorite over Julian Sayin.
But the path for Marcel Reed to win the Heisman Trophy is rather clear.
Right now the Aggies are 9-0, and Reed is a huge reason why. He’s put up 19 touchdown passes, added another six on the ground, threw for six touchdowns, and ran for two more in games against ranked opponents.
Those reasons alone might not be enough for him to catch Mendoza. But Texas A&M’s schedule might give him that chance. After taking on a stingy South Carolina defense this weekend, and then an FCS opponent Samford after that, the Aggies head to Austin to take on Texas Friday night of Thanksgiving weekend. That will give Reed a national stage in a huge rivalry game that very likely has massive playoff implications, to make a closing argument.
And if the Aggies finish the regular season undefeated, it would be the first time since 1994 (when they finished 10-0-1). But the last time Texas A&M went undefeated without a tie? That came back in 1939, when they finished 11-0 and won their only national champoinship.
Again, think of the storylines in that scenario …
3. Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State
Julian Sayin has the second-best Heisman Trophy odds right now for a reason. Ohio State is undefeated, ranked No. 1 in the nation, and Sayin has been statistically the most efficient passer in college football this season.
Sometimes, that is enough to win the Heisman Trophy.
But this year, it might not be.
After all, there are some drawbacks. Ohio State has not played the toughest schedule (the Buckeyes’ slate ranks 41st in the nation, behind both Indiana and Texas A&M), and their next two games are against UCLA and Rutgers, two teams with a combined eight wins this year.
Of course, the game against Michigan could change all that. A big performance from Sayin in the Big House would give the Ohio State QB his own narrative for voters to cling to.
4. Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama
Alabama’s season-0penning loss to Florida State feels like a lifetime ago.
Since then, all the Crimson Tide have done is run through an absolute gauntlet in the SEC, with wins over ranked opponents such as Georgia (in Athens), Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee. They’ll get another chance this weekend when they host Oklahoma. And while the defense has arguably led the way, Ty Simpson has completed 69% of his passes for 1,069 yards and nine touchdowns in those games against ranked opponents, with a Passing Efficiency of 160.1.
That is a very good resume. It might not be enough — yet — to take home the hardware but it is worthy of an invitation to New York City as a Finalist.
The viable Heisman longshots
We love longshots and underdogs. Here are four players to watch over the final few weeks that could crash the Heisman party.
5. Diego Pavia, QB, Vanderbilt
If you are looking for storylines, the longshots might be your best bet.
We can start with Diego Pavia, who has propelled a huge turnaround in Nashville. The Commodores were 7-17 in the two years before he took over under center, and 15-8 since he became their starting quarterback, including an 8-2 record this season. Vanderbilt is in the playoff mix and Pavia has amassed 54.9% of Vandy’s total touchdowns and 40.9% of its total yardage.
The Commodores have Kentucky at home before a trip to Knoxville to take on Tennessee to close out the season. Could a win against the Volunteers on the road be his Heisman moment?
6. Haynes King, QB, Georgia Tech
After climbing up to No. 7, which was their highest ranking since 2009, the Yellow Jackets are now ranked No. 14 with an 8-1 record. They remain in the running for a College Football Playoff spot in the fascinating ACC. And Haynes King has been a force for their rushing attack, with 754 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, second-most in the nation.
King averages 330.3 yards per game, third-most in the nation.
And if they pull off a stunner to close out the year against Georgia?
7. Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
Jeremiah Smith is putting together a Heisman-worthy resume for a wide receiver. The Buckeyes wideout is among the nation’s leaders in nearly every category, including receiving yardage (862, where he ranks sixth), receptions (65, where he ranks sixth), and touchdowns (ten, where he is tied for second).
There is a world where Smith puts up big numbers against Michigan and/or in a Big Ten Championship Game, and his name is on the mind of voters as they fill out their ballots.
8. Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
The case for Jeremiyah Love? The Notre Dame running back has scored 16 total touchdowns, tied with Mississippi running back Kewan Lacy for the most in the nation. He’s fourth nationally in yards per game with 138. His 94-yard touchdown run against Boston College earlier this season was his second career TD run of more than 90 yards, making him the first player in Notre Dame’s storied history to score two 90-yard rushing touchdowns.
There are, however, two drawbacks. First is a bit of history. Derrick Henry in 2015 was the last running back to take home the Heisman, as voting has trended towards quarterbacks in recent years, and with four QBs among the favorites it is hard to see Love breaking that streak.
Then there is Notre Dame’s schedule. Their season ends on November 29 with a game against Stanford, after which they’ll be watching the conference championship games along with the rest of us. That will give many other candidates one more week to impress the voters.
9. Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Texas Tech
We close it out with perhaps the longest of long shots.
Jacob Rodriguez has started to pop on Heisman Trophy lists such as this one, and with good reason. The Texas Tech linebacker is at the heart of one of the nation’s best defenses, a unit that is third nationally with 23 takeaways. Rodriguez is a big part of that statistic, as he leads the nation in forced fumbles and has three interceptions, including one last week in Texas Tech’s big win over BYU.
He also has a tremendous storyline, starting his collegiate journey as a walk-on quarterback at Virginia.
The drawback? History. A pure defensive player has never won the Heisman Trophy, as both Charles Woodson and Travis Hunter Jr. saw time on offense and Woodson on special teams, and it goes without saying that a linebacker has never taken home the award. While those numbers from Rodriguez are good, are they enough to break that history?
