The REALTOR.com 2026 Housing Forecast is out, and there are five key takeaways.
Realtor.com’s 2026 housing forecast points to gradual market stabilization with modest price gains (around 2.2%), a third year of rising inventory, improving but still challenging affordability, stabilized mortgage rates near 6.3%, and a slight uptick in sales. The findings suggest a step toward normalcy after years of imbalance, although the “lock-in” effect and economic risks still persist.
Here are five key takeaways:
- Inventory Growth Continues: Expect a third consecutive year of increasing homes for sale (up ~9%), providing more choices and easing some competition for buyers. We will remain in a seller’s market in 2026.
- Prices Rise Slowly: National home prices are forecast to climb modestly (around 2.2%), but at a slower pace than wages, improving affordability calculations for households.
- Affordability Improves Gradually: A combination of slower price growth, rising incomes, and easing mortgage rates offers noticeable, though gradual, relief for buyers, making 2026 a meaningful step toward historical affordability.
- Sales See Modest Gain: Home sales are expected to move slightly higher (around 1.7%), but the entrenched “lock-in” effect—very low rates held by current homeowners—continues to suppress turnover. Tax breaks for smaller landlords could help improve supply.
- Market Remains Balanced but Hard to Predict: The market trends toward balance with increasing supply, but economic variables such as inflation, interest rate policy, and labor market shifts still create uncertainty.
Prices are not likely to decline in any meaningful way. Persistent critics and “perma-bears” continue to insist that we are in a bubble and that a major correction is looming. I personally find no evidence to support that view.
