Later tonight, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will unveil their latest set of rankings, the third this season.
And these rankings might be the most fascinating yet.
The top three from a week ago — Ohio State, Indiana, and Texas A&M — will remain unchanged. All three took care of business against teams that began last week at 3-6 on the season, and while the Aggies pulled off an incredible comeback after trailing 30-3 at halftime, that tough first half probably leaves them at No. 3 behind the other two teams for the third consecutive week.
Then it gets interesting.
Alabama’s loss to Oklahoma will drop them out of the No. 4 spot, and how far will they fall? The Crimson Tide fell to No. 10 in the AP Top 25, and the Committee will likely have them behind the Sooners given how they emphasize head-to-head results, but will they also fall below Notre Dame among the two-loss teams? A win over Georgia might be enough, along with Alabama’s difficult schedule, to keep them ahead of Notre Dame.
Sticking in the SEC, Georgia likely slides up to No. 4, thanks to their win over Texas. Ole Miss got a conference win over Florida, and they will likely move up as well, as will the Sooners. Oklahoma might have two losses, but road wins over Tennessee and now Alabama will have the Sooners as the top-ranked two-loss team.
As for the Longhorns, their loss to the Bulldogs dropped them to three losses on the season, putting their College Football Playoff hopes on life support. Their path to the bracket now seems clear: They need to win out, which would include a victory over Texas A&M on the night after Thanksgiving. Even that might not be enough, but their odds of making the bracket jump to 45% with a pair of wins to close out the season, an increase over their current chance of 20%, according to projections from ESPN.
The ACC still remains on track to be a one-bid conference. Miami and Georgia Tech both won last week, as did Virginia. But how will the Committee view the Yellow Jackets needing to score 19 points in the fourth quarter to rally past one-win Boston College?
Now we get to the Group of 5. Last week it was South Florida occupying the last spot in the bracket as the No. 12 seed, as well as a spot in the Committee’s Top 25 at No. 24. But a loss to Navy drops the Bulls out of the running for the moment, and opens the door for another team. Could that be Tulane? The 8-2 Green Wave debuted at No. 24 in the AP Top 25, and have wins over Duke and Northwestern to help their case. Could Navy’s win over South Florida impress the Committee enough? What about North Texas? The Mean Green are 9-1 and have a win over Navy, but a blowout loss to South Florida is a blemish on their resume.
If the Committee wants to avoid the chaos that is the AAC for the moment, they could look to James Madison. The Dukes improved to 9-1 with a win over App State, but given how the Committee looks at strength of schedule, they might remain on the outside looking in, given a slate that ranks 119th toughest in the nation.
Lots of questions at the moment, but later tonight we will get some answers. The latest installment of the College Football Selection Committee’s rankings will be unveiled at 8:30 p.m. Eastern tonight on ESPN.
Until then, here is a look back at last week’s rankings.
What were the CFP rankings last week?
1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Texas Tech
7. Ole Miss
8. Oregon
9. Notre Dame
10. Texas
11. Oklahoma
12. BYU
13. Utah
14. Vanderbilt
15. Miami
16. Georgia Tech
17. USC
18. Michigan
19. Virginia
20. Louisville
21. Iowa
22. Pittsburgh
23. Tennessee
24. South Florida
25. Cincinnati
What was the CFP bracket last week?
Here were the 12 teams in the hypothetical College Football Playoff based on the Committee’s rankings from a week ago:
1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Texas Tech
7. Ole Miss
8. Oregon
9. Notre Dame
10. Texas
11. Miami
12. South Florida
What was the hypothetical bracket last week?
Here is what the bracket looked like after last week’s rankings from the Committee:
