Can “Wicked” Earn Oscars for Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo for Good This Time?

Is Oscar gold coming to Oz once more?

Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo turned last year’s Wicked movie musical into more than just a box office phenomenon; they were decorated with Oscar nominations in the process.

Wicked: For Good (in theaters now), the second and final of Jon M. Chu’s two movies adapting Stephen Schwartz and Winnie Holzman’s hit Broadway show about the witches of Oz, could very well become an awards darling, much like the first film.

Last year, Wicked earned Oscars for its production and costume design out of 10 nominations total, including a best Best Picture nod, plus nominations for Erivo, 38, for Best Actress as Elphaba and Grande, 32, for Best Supporting Actress as Glinda.

Will those nominations repeat? If the sequel’s leading ladies indeed earn back-to-back nods in their same respective categories, they’d join an elite group of actors Oscar-nominated twice for the same role (think Al Pacino, twice nominated in the Godfather franchise). No actor has ever won an Oscar for a sequel (except Robert De Niro for The Godfather Part II, but he did not appear in its predecessor). And Erivo, previously nominated for her work in 2019’s Harriet, would earn the distinction of an “EGOT” winner if she prevails this year.

Ahead of the the 98th Academy Awards, which will be held March 16, 2026, let’s look at what pundits are saying about Wicked: For Good’s chances.

Never miss a story — sign up for PEOPLE’s free daily newsletter to stay up-to-date on the best of what PEOPLE has to offer​​, from celebrity news to compelling human interest stories. 

Best Picture

Now that audiences, including critics and awards voters, have started to see Wicked: For Good, the question on Hollywood’s mind will be how far can it go in the awards race? Like last year’s Part One, the film’s fall release is ideally positioned for awards consideration, fresh in voters’ minds and surely benefiting from a gravity-defying box office performance.

As for the industry’s top award, the Academy Award for Best Picture, pundits at major outlets have listed Wicked: For Good as making the cut (up to 10 films can be nominated in the category). IndieWire’s Marcus Jones put it at 10th, The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg listed it more confidently, in 8th place, while Variety‘s Clayton Davis last ranked it at 6th.

The Wicked sequel “is smartly positioning itself as 2025’s answer to The Lord of the Rings, a multipart franchise where the final chapter becomes the one that reaps all the rewards of the audience’s investment,” wrote GoldDerby’s Ethan Alter. “While repeating Return of the King‘s 11-for-11 ‘clean sweep’ of the 76th Academy Awards back in 2004 is unlikely, there’s power — as well as peril — in the ‘final chapter’ narrative.”

Best Actress

As of the opening weekend release of Wicked: For Good, GoldDerby also lists Erivo and Grande safely in the top 5 of predictions for the Oscars’ Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress categories, respectively. Feinberg wrote he’s “sure they will be” nominated, positioning Erivo in 3rd place following her loss last year to Anora’s Mikey Madison.

But multiple outlets agree that the British actress and Grande face very different battles to the top. Erivo is likely facing off against a particularly steep roster this year between leading ladies Jessie Buckley for Hamnet, Emma Stone for Bugonia, Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value, Amanda Seyfried for The Testament of Ann Lee, Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue and Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, per pundits.

Does it help that Wicked: For Good will likely outshine all those titles in terms of box office numbers? “It’s rare that an actor wins an Oscar for a role in a mega blockbuster,” wrote Screen Rant’s Ross Tanenbaum, noting that Erivo could join leads Joaquin Phoenix for Joker and Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer among the rare exceptions.

NextBigPicture’s Ben Langford is less optimistic about Erivo’s chances. “Even if every voter who votes for Grande also votes for Erivo, the competition is just so much fiercer in Best Actress that it may not be enough for them to come along together a second year in a row,” the pundit wrote.

Best Supporting Actress

Grande is earning raves for her work in Wicked: For Good, with The New York Times’ Kyle Buchanan championing the dramatic work she does, often in closeup, throughout Chu’s film. The Daily Beast’s critic Kevin Fallon, meanwhile, made his sentiments crystal clear, titling the movie’s review “Give Ariana Grande the Oscar for Her ‘Wicked: For Good’ Performance.”

The Playlist’s Gregory Ellwood wrote, “the minor surprise this time around is how spectacular Grande is as Glinda’s story unfolds.” Of her chances at the Supporting Actress Oscar, he said, “she could absolutely win.”

After facing off at last year’s Oscars against A Complete Unknown’s Monica Barbaro and Zoe Saldaña’s winning Emilia Perez performances, the Grammy winner should benefit this year from having fewer competitors in musical roles. Her competition includes a wide variety of actresses and performances, including Teyana Taylor and Regina Hall for One Battle After Another, Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value, Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners, Amy Madigan for Weapons, and more.

Wicked: For Good is now in theaters. The movie also stars Jeff Goldblum, Jonathan Bailey, Michelle Yeoh and more.

For more, including cast interviews and exclusive behind-the-scenes photos, pick up PEOPLE’s new special edition all about Wicked: For Good, available here.