If a Democrat wins the governor’s race this fall, they would likely have to work with a Republican-controlled Legislature. John McCosh/Georgia Recorder
If Georgians elect another Republican as governor, we know it won’t be a Republican in the mold of Brian Kemp or Nathan Deal. The two top candidates for the GOP nomination – a billionaire and a multi-millionaire – have spent fortunes making it clear to voters that Donald Trump, not Kemp, would be the model they emulate.
In part because of that loyalty to a politically damaged Trump, election analysts say that Georgia has a 50/50 chance this year of electing a Democratic governor for the first time this century. What on earth would that look like?
Well, we should assume that any newly elected Democrat would enter the governor’s office with a state Legislature that remains firmly under Republican control. Even a “blue wave” of the size that some predict isn’t likely to break the GOP’s grip on the General Assembly.
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Under those circumstances, Republicans in the Legislature would have no incentive to help make that incoming governor a success. They will call a special session to redistrict state and federal offices before the Democrat can even take office, and may even use that special session to strip powers from the incoming governor.
In short, a Democratic governor would face a hostile environment under the Gold Dome. So think of the four main contenders for the Democratic nomination: Who has the skill set, the experience, the relationships that would be needed to succeed in that kind of environment?
As a former lieutenant governor, and a former Republican, Geoff Duncan would have some advantages that his competitors do not. He knows the Legislature and how it functions, although he would also inspire backlash from Republicans who see him as a traitor. (That transformation is legitimate cause for caution among Democrats as well.)
Likewise, Mike Thurmond has led a major state agency, a major county and a major school district, as well as serving in the Legislature. Jason Esteves has also served in the Legislature, and boasts endorsements from a long list of former legislative colleagues, suggesting that he’s earned a high degree of respect from his peers.
The Democratic candidate leading in all the polls, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, would probably have the most difficulty in dealing with Republican legislative leadership.
During her single term as mayor, Bottoms often found herself feuding with Kemp and other Republican leaders. It wasn’t merely a question of partisan politics either – her relations with the Atlanta City Council were also less than cordial. It’s worth noting that her successor, Mayor Andre Dickens, has been considerably more effective both in dealing with Republicans under the Gold Dome and in working with the City Council.
It’s a curious thing. Bottoms’ time as Atlanta mayor is her greatest advantage in the upcoming May 19 primary, because of the name recognition it has given her. She may be able to ride that advantage to victory later this month and avoid a runoff.
However, should she become her party’s nominee, that history would also be her greatest disadvantage.
Bottoms served as mayor from 2018 to 2022, through the Covid era, which was a rough time to be in office. Even by those standards, however, she was not a successful mayor. As a rule, successful mayors don’t walk away from office after one term.
And if memories have faded a bit in the four years since Bottoms left office, the eventual Republican nominee will spend tens of millions of dollars refreshing those memories between now and November. Her Democratic opponents haven’t had the resources or perhaps the audacity to make that case against her, but Republicans will be another story.
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