The 2026 NBA Playoffs promised a wide open championship race for a league that has seen seven unique champions over the last seven seasons. The playoffs are already delivering in the first-round, and they’re only going to get better as the march towards the NBA Finals continues.
The start of the first round has already positioned three series as all-out battles with the road team stealing a game. The Atlanta Hawks evened things up against the New York Knicks in Game 2 with an incredible fourth quarter rally led by C.J. McCollum. The Minnesota Timberwolves tied the series vs. the Denver Nuggets in what’s shaping up to be the most physical clash of the first round. The No. 8 seed Orlando Magic knocked off the No. 1 seed Detroit Pistons in Game 1 to immediately raise the stakes in the East. The Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers series is shaping up to be competitive too despite major injuries on both sides.
With the first round in full swing, here’s one overreaction from every series so far. Check out our full rankings for every team in the NBA Playoffs, and a list of the top-50 players in the postseason, for more coverage.
The Magic really have a chance to upset the Pistons
Yes, the Magic were my preseason NBA Finals pick, and yes, I was deeply ashamed of it all year. Orlando failed to meet expectations for a variety of reasons this season, but the big ones were: a) injuries, b) poor coaching, and c) a failure to maximize the fit between Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. It looked like the Magic wouldn’t even make the playoffs after they got drilled by the Philadelphia 76ers in their play-in opener, but they put up their best performance of the season in the next play-in game against the Charlotte Hornets to earn the No. 8 seed, then topped it with an excellent Game 1 to knock off the heavily favored Pistons.
I really liked the way the matchups work out for the Magic in this series now that they’re finally healthy. The Pistons are known for their physicality, but they can’t bully Orlando. It was nice to see Banchero and Wagner get their high-low game going. Wagner looked deadly on drives to the rim, and Banchero was doing a good job of not settling for jumpers, where his touch is poor. Jalen Suggs is really one of the most impactful role players in the league, and he looked great in disrupting the Pistons’ perimeter offense. Wendell Carter Jr. had a masterful game switching defensively to deny Detroit’s drives while also spacing the floor on offense.
Detroit should roar back to form in Game 2. The Pistons can make some adjustments to force Banchero into his worst habits, and find more ways to free up Duren offensively. I’ve always been a little skeptical of JB Bickerstaff in the playoffs, though, and the talent gap doesn’t feel like a typical No. 1 vs. No. 8 series here. Questions about Detroit’s halfcourt offense persisted all season, and they should be louder than ever right now. I doubt Game 1 will be Orlando’s only victory in this series. The Pistons will answer, but the Magic really have a chance to advance.
The Celtics are going to roll over the Sixers
Boston showed why they’re suddenly the favorites to reach the NBA Finals out of the East. The Celtics rocked the 76ers from the opening quarter in Game 1 in a display that showed their full might. Jayson Tatum looked fantastic in the first quarter, Jaylen Brown took over in the third, and the defense, three-point shooting, and rebounding were all humming at elite levels. Tatum’s comeback from a torn Achilles suffered 11 months ago has been so impressive, and somehow it feels like the Celtics are deeper than ever even after losing Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis in the offseason. This organization is the gold standard in the game, from the front office to the coaching to the players. The Celtics look scary right now.
The James Harden trade looks genius for the Cavs
The idea of trading for James Harden to bolster a playoff run is objectively kind of hilarious on its face, but it sure feels like it’s working out well for the Cavs. Darius Garland was always going to get picked on in the playoffs for his diminutive frame, and it just didn’t feel like Cleveland could trust him to stay healthy through the entire postseason. Swapping out Garland for James Harden was a fascinating move that shortened the Cavs’ timeline but also gave them the best possible chance to win right now. Yes, Harden has an epic list of playoff failures in his career, but he’s still damn good at age-36, and his arrival has freed up Donovan Mitchell’s workload while maximizing Jarrett Allen’s offensive ceiling in the pick-and-roll. With rumors swirling that Mitchell could be on the trade block if he turns down an offseason extension, the Cavs had to go all-out to try to make the NBA Finals this season, and the Harden trade really did seem to improve their odds. I see this team winning more than one playoff series this year, and this opener against the Raptors shouldn’t be too suspenseful.
Karl-Anthony Towns should be enough for Knicks to advance
This playoff run feels destined to become a referendum on every key piece for the Knicks, maybe no one more so than Karl-Anthony Towns. KAT badly needs a signature playoff run both for New York’s conference championship chances and his own reputation, and the Hawks’ matchup felt like it should be a favorable start for him. Game 1 showed just how much bigger, stronger, and more skilled Towns is than the Atlanta front court. In Game 2, Atlanta completely took Towns out of the game in the fourth quarter, limiting him to zero points and only two shot attempts. Towns needs to avoid falling into his usual traps — stupid fouls, bad defense, inexplicable moments where he trips for no reason — which is easier said than done. It does feel like his chemistry with Jalen Brunson hit another level late in the season, and he should be able to annihilate Atlanta if both are locked in. It’s time for KAT to remind everyone that he’s one of the best bigs in the league and a former No. 1 overall draft pick. Atlanta can’t stop him, and he has no excuses the rest of this series.
The Thunder will not be challenged by the Suns
I really respect the Suns’ success because I thought they would be terrible and trapped in eternal hell with all their draft picks out the door and the ghost Bradley Beal as an anchor on the cap sheet. Phoenix is a fun, gritty team with an excellent first-year head coach in Jordan Ott. There are levels to this, though, and the Thunder are multiple standard deviations better than the Suns. OKC was the big winner of the final seeding, because they get to watch the Nuggets and Spurs duke it out on the other side of the bracket. I don’t expect the Thunder to be tested until the West Finals.
Playoff Wemby is a legend in the making
Victor Wembanyama’s playoff debut was spectacular, scoring 21 points in the first half to kickstart a rout of the Trail Blazers. I compared Wemby to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar — the third best player in NBA history for my money — a year before he entered the NBA Draft, and I still don’t’ regret it. He’s already in the conversation for the best player in the world at age-22. If he stays healthy, it will feel like an upset he’s not a top-10 player of all-time when it’s all said and done. Wembanyama’s ascent cannot be stopped, and the Spurs have put a good enough team around him to make anything possible this year. Portland will be the first team to feel something many Western Conference adversaries will experience over the decade: Wembanyama is simply a problem without a solution, and your team has no chance if he’s on the other side.
Rudy Gobert will get his flowers vs. the Nuggets
Rudy Gobert has to be the most maligned great player of his generation. There are a thousand podcast clips over the years of former players disrespecting his game. Meanwhile, all Gobert does is continue to lockdown the paint defensively all by himself, and he proved it again in Game 2 against the Nuggets. Gobert only scored two points, but his impact was was so much greater when it came to limiting the Nikola Jokic/Jamal Murray two-man game. Gobert can bother Jokic’s 1-on-1 scoring, and he can hedge or switch out on Murray when he needs to. He also keeps himself in great shape to continue fighting deep into games. I expect the Nuggets to still win this series even after giving up a home game in Game 2, but it won’t be easy with an all-time great defensive center making life miserable for an elite offense.
Ime Udoka will be on the hot seat if the Rockets lose to the Lakers
Ime Udoka inherited a 22-win team when he was hired as head coach of the Rockets, and immediately led them to 41 wins in his first season and then 52 wins in back-to-back seasons after that. Udoka is an excellent defensive coach, and he’s working at a disadvantage right now without Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams plus an unexpected injury to Kevin Durant in Game 1. The Rockets’ biggest problems are more personnel related than coaching, but Udoka could still face some heat if Houston actually gets eliminated to a Lakers team without Luka Doncic or Austin Reaves. It’s hard to believe the Rockets had a top-10 offense this season after watching their pathetic display — a 106.5 offensive rating — in Game 1. Durant’s absence obviously contributed a lot to that, but it just feels like nothing comes easy for this team. I think firing Udoka would be a mistake even if Houston loses, but I would bet we get some hot seat rumors this summer as Houston ponders how to take the next step.
