The 2025-26 College Football Playoff field was officially set on Sunday and we now know the 12 teams that will be vying to hold up the big, gold trophy in Miami on January 19.
We didn’t get any upsets in last year’s playoff until the quarterfinals, meaning all of the lower seeds got quickly bounced out of the bracket in the first round. We only have a one-year sample size for this format and have yet to see a a true underdog take the field by storm like we see happen all the time in March Madness. Could this happen this year?
We’ll take a look at which of the lower-seeded teams have the best chance at stringing together one upset after another on their way to the CFP title game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. We’ll define a lower seed as one of the teams in the 9-12 range, a.k.a teams that have to go on the road to someone else’s house in the first round of the playoffs.
No. 12 James Madison
First-round matchup: @ Oregon
Thanks to the ACC’s tiebreaker chaos, James Madison was able to slip into the College Football Playoff bracket as the fifth-highest ranked conference champion and is one of two Group of Five teams represented in the field. The Dukes stormed right through the Sun Belt in just their fourth season of FBS, posting an 12-1 record with an average scoring margin of 20.3 points per game while ranking 25th in both offensive and defensive SP+. Quarterback Alonza Barnett III and linebacker Trent Hendrick both took home Sun Belt Player of the Year honors on their respective sides of the ball and head coach Bob Chesney is a rising name in the sport who will be leading UCLA next season.
Unfortunately for JMU, it has the roughest path to a championship out of every team in the entire bracket. Oregon is extremely tough to crack at Autzen Stadium with the program only suffering three home losses during Dan Lanning’s four-year stint in Eugene. Even if the Dukes were to clear that gigantic hurdle, they’d be immediately met with Texas Tech and their buzzsaw defense in the Orange Bowl, followed by a potential matchup against No. 1 Indiana in the Peach Bowl. And all of that is before the national title game in Miami. It’s a daunting gauntlet, but hey, they are one of four programs in this year’s field that can say that they’ve actually raised a national title banner in the last decade.
No. 11 Tulane
First-round matchup: @ Ole Miss
The other Group of Five team in the field is Tulane, who checks in at No. 11 after defeating North Texas in the American Championship Game. The Green Wave have been one of the best G5 programs this decade and were able to post an 11-2 record with BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff leading the offense with over 3,400 yards total yards of offense and 30 touchdowns on the year. Florida-bound head coach Jon Sumrall is a defensive specialist and that was reflected by the Wave finishing the year tied for eighth in takaways with 24.
Tulane is in a unique position as their first-round game will be a rematch against Ole Miss, a team that cooked them in a 45-10 blowout in Oxford back on September 20. Circumstances have obviously changed since then with the Rebels now under the leadership of Pete Golding following Lane Kiffin’s departure to LSU. That *could* create an opening for Tulane to get some redemption for a potential upset and it would earn the program a trip to the Sugar Bowl to meet Georgia. The Wave would literally be right at home in New Orleans for that game but keep in mind, Sumrall is heading to Florida next year and there’s nothing that Kirby Smart would love more than to demoralize Gator fans by embarrassing their future head coach before he even steps on the sidelines in Gainesville.
No. 10 Miami
First-round matchup: @ Texas A&M
Miami’s CFP chances hung in the balance with the ACC’s tiebreaker shenanigans and the thought that they’d be left out of the field entirely in favor of Notre Dame. However, the committee did decide that the “U” was worthy of that honor and they will be heading to the dance after a 10-2 campaign. The Hurricanes assembled an impressive roster in the offseason and were looking like one of the top teams in the country early on with a season-opening victory against Notre Dame and a blowout win over G5 contender USF. ACC Defensive Player of the Year Rueben Bain Jr. was dominant and could potentially be a top-five pick in the 2026 NFL Draft while wide receiver Malachi Toney broke out as one of the best freshman receivers in the entire country. Georgia transfer quarterback Carson Beck also proved to be mostly effective, but did have stinkers like his multi-interception performances in losses to Louisville and SMU.
At No. 10, Miami is the team that could be the true agent of chaos in the postseason. Mario Cristobal’s team was built to matchup physically with their first-round opponent Texas A&M and we just saw what a team that ranks in the top 10 of defensive SP+ can do against Ohio State. A potential matchup against Georgia in the semifinals would be tough considering that the UGA staff knows all of Beck’s weaknesses but if they clear that hurdle, the program’s first national title in 24 years would be well within reach.
No. 9 Alabama
First-round matchup: @ Oklahoma
Alabama is the only three-loss team in the entire field and its inclusion is was the biggest point of controversy coming out of Selection Sunday. The Crimson Tide stumbled out the gate with a 14-point loss to Florida State that aged horribly as time went on, but a subsequent eight-game win streak included a huge road win over Georgia that put them right back near the top of the rankings. They ended up making the SEC Championship Game with a 10-2 regular season record, but as we saw on Saturday, they were annihilated by three touchdowns in the rematch against the Bulldogs. The Tide were solid throughout the year, but never truly dominant, and that was reflected by the fact that they had to squeak by subpar SEC foes like South Carolina and Auburn down the stretch. Their most glaring weakness was an alarming lack of a rushing attack as they ranked near the bottom of the nation with 116.2 rushing yards per game on just 3.56 yards per carry.
Kalen DeBoer’s group was just outclassed in one of their rematches from the regular season and they will have another against an Oklahoma team that just beat them 23-21 in Tuscaloosa on the strength of defense and special teams. Alabama will have an extremely tough challenge on their hands going to Norman and if they were to survive then, then it’s a potential date with two more boa constrictor units in Indiana and Texas Tech. Even if running back Jam Miller is healthy for the playoffs, they’re going to need a tremendous boost in ground firepower if they want to make it to Miami.
