The NBA season is young, but narratives can form quickly. One week, Cade Cunningham is an inefficient shot-chucker who turns the ball over too much; the next, he’s one of the league’s top two-way initiators who is willing to take the hard shots his team needs without sacrificing an inch on the defensive end. Such is life at the start of the season when a couple good weeks or bad weeks can seemingly change the perception of a player whether it’s fair or not.
We focused on some pleasant surprises earlier this week by profiling six potential first-time NBA All-Stars. Now let’s look at the players who have been a little underwhelming so far.
Every player on this list is really good, and will continue to be really good even after this season. Their inclusion on this list only means we expect a little more from them. There’s still plenty of time for these players to turn it around, and I’d bet on most of them doing it, especially the names in the top half of the list. Let’s get into it.
Evan Mobley, C/F, Cleveland Cavaliers
I’ve always been super high on Mobley and consider him one of the NBA’s best young players, which means I hold him to a higher standard than his level of play to start this season. At age-24, Mobley should be separating himself from his peers as one of the league’s next great bigs, but instead players like Chet Holmgren and Alperen Sengun seem to have either caught up or surpassed him. There was an opportunity for a bigger offensive impact this year with Darius Garland and Max Strus out with injury and Ty Jerome departing via free agency, but Donovan Mitchell is the one soaking up more usage as Mobley’s play has stagnated a bit. Mobley is having his least efficient scoring campaign since his rookie year with a -1 rTS% compared to league-average. His free throw shooting has been atrocious so far at 59.3 percent (it was 72.5 percent last year), and his overall two-point shooting has dropped from 62 percent last year to 55.6 percent so far this season. It’s also odd that Cleveland’s defense is actually three points better with Mobley off the floor per 100 possessions considering Mobley won Defensive Player of the Year last year. Some stunted efficiency early in the season would make sense if Mobley was trying to grow his game off the dribble or from the perimeter more this year, but his percentage of assisted field goals has actually gone up. He just isn’t playing with the same force that helped unlock his jump last season, and Cleveland still feels no closer to knowing whether he’s a four or five long-term. It’s legitimately shocking that Cleveland has four players ahead of Mobley on the EPM ratings right now in Mitchell, Sam Merrill, Jaylon Tyson, and Jarrett Allen. I’m not worried about Mobley long-term at all, and maybe getting a star ball handler back in Garland and a volume shooter back in Strus will help set him up for easier buckets. I just think so highly of Mobley that his slow start warrants inclusion.
Paolo Banchero, F, Orlando Magic
I’ve always been super high on Banchero. He went wire-to-wire as my No. 1 prospect in the 2022 draft, and I even picked the Orlando Magic to win the East this year baking in a leap from their star forward in his age-23 season. Instead, Banchero started slow, and just when he began stacking good games he suffered another nagging injury with a groin strain. His absence has highlighted an irritating problem for Orlando all over again: Banchero and Franz Wagner just don’t make each other better, and the team is again at its best with only one of them on the floor. A year ago, the Magic had a -9.3 in net-rating with Banchero on and Wagner off, and +9.6 in net-rating with Wagner on and Banchero off. The numbers are much better for Banchero this year: Orlando is +7.5 with only Paolo on, and +4.9 with only Wagner on, but the issue is that they’re basically dead-even when both stars are playing together with a +0.5 net-rating. The Magic have a clear way of playing with Wagner at the controls: he’s one of the best drivers in the league, and his ability to get to the cup sets up easier scoring opportunities for everyone else. Banchero’s mid-range heavy game just seems to get in the way of that, and he’s never figured out his rolling or a spacing to help maximize his off-ball game. I love how Banchero is rebounding this year, and I think he looks better than ever defensively, but his lack of shooting improvement is holding him back. Banchero is a still a tick below league-average in overall scoring efficiency, and his three-point shot remains busted at 25 percent. I do like that Banchero is taking more shots within 10-feet this year (improving from 21 percent to 24 percent), but there’s no reason he can’t be a more efficient scorer with his combination of size, strength, and skill. It’s time that Banchero starts prioritizing how to fit in around Wagner instead of continuing the my-turn, your-turn style offense that never really works. Banchero is still a damn good player, but he could be better, and the Magic look nothing like the East title team I expected. Once again, it’s not working as well as it should with Paolo and Franz given their level of talent.
Derrick White, G, Boston Celtics
Let’s be clear that White is still a highly impactful player even amid the worst shooting slump of his life. The Celtics guard remains an absolute bulldog defensively, collecting blocked shots at an elite level for a guard while giving Boston immense on-ball and off-ball defensive utility. It just seemed like White could reach a new level as a volume scorer this season with Jayson Tatum out with a torn Achilles, but instead his efficiency has plummeted from all over the floor. White is only making 41.6 percent of his two-pointers (down from 59 percent last year), and his three-point shot has fallen to 30 percent after being above 38 percent each of his first three full seasons with the Celtics. It’s a testament to White’s intellect and grit that he can still be a +4.6 in net-rating despite underperforming as a shooter so thoroughly. He isn’t walking in to the same easy threes he had when Tatum was occupying defensive attention, and Boston’s much shakier new front court requires him to focus more of his energy on defense. White could probably still go for a huge haul if the Celtics put him on the trade block, but by all accounts they view him as a foundational piece for the next era of the team when Tatum returns. I just thought White could go up another level as a scorer, but it shows going from connector to featured option really isn’t that easy.
Kawhi Leonard, F, Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are the most disappointing team in the NBA to start the year, and their star player symbolizes their decline more than anyone else. Leonard has been just awesome when he’s been on the floor for Los Angeles, posting his most points per 100 possessions since his first year with the team in 2019-2020, and his efficiency is very good too with nearly 63 percent true shooting. The problem is the same problem as always: he’s missed more than half the games so far despite being healthy to start the season. Leonard has been limited with an ankle sprain, and at this point it’s foolish to expect him to ever play something close to a full season. The Clippers’ drop off is more about their sinking defense, which is currently No. 25 in defensive efficiency after finishing No. 3 last year. The bigger problem is that the Clippers just look old and slow and without much athletic punch, and Leonard only contributes to that problem. He’s just not worth his massive salary ($50 million this season, the league’s 16th highest-paid player) with part-time availability and annual physical breakdowns in the playoffs at the end of a long season. The off-court Aspiration scandal has been quiet lately, but the league shouldn’t let it slide. At this point, it’s easy to see having Leonard on the books as its own form of punishment for the Clippers’ cap circumvention, but of course that won’t stop them from trying it again with a new star if they get away with it.
Paul George, F, Philadelphia 76ers
When it happened, getting Paul George for nothing but cap space seemed like a great move for Daryl Morey as he tried to build a championship team around Joel Embiid. In hindsight, letting George walk is one of the smartest moves the Clippers ever made, as injuries and underwhelming play have plagued him since joining the Sixers. George might be on the NBA’s worst contract right now making $53 million per year on the second-season of a four-year deal. He hasn’t come close to matching that value. George only played only 41 games last season at a much, much worse level than his All-Star season in 2023-24 with the Clippers. Any hope that George would use the summer to get healthy took a hit when it was announced he would have arthroscopic knee surgery until July 14 despite playing his last game on March 4 last season. The injury carried into this season, and the early returns haven’t been encouraging in his first games back. At 35 years old, George feels much closer to a full-time podcaster than a potential All-Star again. The Sixers have transitioned from Embiid and George’s team to Tyrese Maxey’s team, and at this point anything George could give them would be gravy. It really can’t get any worse than how he’s been since signing with the Sixers.
Zion Williamson, F, New Orleans Pelicans
Every year I talk myself into the Zion Williamson bounce-back season, and every season he finds a way to let me down. Williamson showed up to training camp in the best shape of his life, but it hasn’t helped keep him on the floor. He’s once again missed more than half of the team’s games, and even when he’s been available, he hasn’t been performing at an All-Star level like he did in 2021 and 2023. I thought Zion would be one of the league’s most efficiency high-volume scorers at this point thanks to his dominant rim gravity; instead he’s scoring at below league-average efficiency this season. I thought Zion would add value defensively with his weakside shot-blocking; instead he has just three blocks in 246 minutes this year. The hype-explosive supernova we saw at Duke is long gone and isn’t coming back. This is the last time I’m falling for it.
Ja Morant, G, Memphis Grizzlies
It wasn’t long ago that Morant seemed destined to be the face of the league as a fearless rim attacker with a flair for the dramatic. His fall from grace has been one of the NBA’s saddest stories over the last few years, with gun-related suspensions, a defiant attitude towards coaches and media, and injuries all part of the package. Morant has also fallen off even when he’s been on the court, declining as a rim finisher and totally falling off as a shooter. It just feels like this version of Morant is a shell of himself, and that he needs a change of scenery to rediscover his joy for the game.
