Here’s why I’m NOT worried about Saturday afternoon when the red and black meet the ugly orange with a wildly mismatched blue:
1. Florida really doesn’t have a rushing game; they’ve only had 3 running plays greater than 20 yards all season (and none greater than 30). This adds up to only 4 yards a carry and less than 130 yards a game. Probably because they’re always having to pass their way back into games. Weirdly, DJ Lagway is the 2nd most frequent carrier for the Ground Gators, yet is 9th in yards with only 12 (including sacks).
This is a far cry from the likes of Trinidad Chambliss and Jackson Arnold, who ran for 42 and 55 yards against Georgia respectively. Plus Arnold ran in a score, and Chambliss ran in 2 touchdowns. The Bulldog defense is only allowing 3 yards a carry to opponents in 2025, and has kept 4 teams under 100 yards for the entire game.
2. Florida also isn’t explosive in the passing game. They’ve had a handful of some busted coverages and long runs after the catch, but more often are throwing it underneath. They are nowhere near as dangerous and productive as Alabama, Tennessee, and Ole Miss. And they sit 16th in the SEC.
The Bulldogs actually had the chunk play advantage against Alabama, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. So the Schumann defense is, for the most part, not letting the offense behind them. And with Florida’s lack of explosiveness, and if we can actually tackle the ball (admittedly a big if), we should be in good shape.
3. We just have to get them to 3rd down. Because Florida is 128th out of 136 FBS teams in 3rd down conversion percentage. A lot has been made that Georgia opponents are successful converting first downs since they’re seemingly always in 3rd and short. But not every opponent is Florida. On 3rd and 3 yards or less, they average about half a yard rushing. And they’re only 2 of 5 passing in those same situations.
If you’re wondering about 3rd and longer, there’s more good news. If facing between 4-9 yards on 3rd down, the Gators are rarely running but they average less than 4 yards when they do. For Florida grads, that is less than the yardage across the line to gain. They mostly pass in these downs and distances, but are only completing 20 of 34 attempts. That is also less than ideal.
Now forgive me, as I was weaned at the nipple of Larry Munson’s scratch so here’s what does worry me about playing the Lake City Lizards:
1. The Gator defense is stout. It may only be ranked 34th nationally (which is still top 25%), but they’ve only allowed more than 4 scoring drives in a game twice – the same as Georgia. Opponents have put together 25 scoring drives total on the season, whereas UGA has allowed 23.
The difference is the Florida offense has punted 32 times (only 21 punts for Georgia). Between that and turnovers, the Gators are giving the ball back… a lot. So the defense has to protect… a lot. Example: even in a 23-21 win vs. the Bizarro Bulldogs, the UF defense faced 80 offensive plays. All that and they’ve still forced 40 punts on the season.
2 . The Gators will be the 3rd best pass defense we’ve seen so far. In 7 games, the Bulldogs have faced a pass defense in the top half nationally twice – Alabama and Ole Miss. Now Georgia QB Gunner Stockton did have a very nice performance facing the Rebels. But it wasn’t anything to write home about against the Crimson Tide (one sure-fire dropped TD down the seam notwithstanding).
Gunner Stockton isn’t especially adept at layering passes. He’s got a live arm, no doubt about that. And he’s shown touch and accuracy on some beautiful deep balls. But that intermediate route is tough – he tends to just throw fastballs. Which is fine for the screen game, but we need to have options in the middle of the field behind the linebackers every once in a while, and at some point that will be necessary to win a game.
3 . It’s the Cocktail Party. And strange things happen on the banks of the St. John’s River. I should know – I once took a houseboat up the St. John’s to see the Rolling Stones in Jacksonville, and brother, strange things happened.
Florida has 4 different defensive backs with a pick each, and they’re loaded with upperclassmen. DJ Lagway may be near the bottom in QBR thanks to a 5 interception game, but you can’t deny his talent – you also can’t deny he was moving the Florida offense last year against UGA before getting injured. With new leadership (Billy Gonzales), new staff (Steve Spurrier Jr.), freedom from the shackles of the Billy Napier era, and absolutely nothing to lose, these Gators could come out hungry and play well above their recent history.
Call me crazy, just don’t call me late for dinner. Let us know in the comments what you’re feeling about the WLOCP and the last time we visit Duval for a while. And as always…
GO ‘DAWGS!!!
