Here’s why I’m NOT worried about Saturday night when the Meadow Muffins come to town:
1. Texas rushes for only 135 a game. Georgia allows only 100 yards a game. One of these numbers is categorically good, yet both are good for Bulldog fans. The Burnt Orange Bevos returned a very talented RB in Quintrevion Wisner, but neither he nor the other backs have been able to replicate success on the ground. Wisner was hurt early in the season, and since returning has yet to break 100 yards (and only broke 80 once). Arch Manning is the team’s 2nd leading rusher and by a decent margin.
UGA has allowed over 115 yards rushing in 3 of the last 4 games, but those were run-heavy teams with running quarterbacks who evaded sacks, scrambled frequently, and still were held under 4 yards a carry on average. I don’t see UT’s running game suddenly finding life Saturday.
2. Arch Manning may have had a couple of nice games recently, but let’s put it into context. Maybe his most complete game was 2 weeks ago against Vanderbilt – who happens to rank bottom 10 percentile nationally in pass defense. His only other Power 4 game with 300 passing yards was Mississippi St. and we know that they can be carved up on occasion.
Cooper’s son only threw for 132 yards and less than 50% against Kentucky. He wasn’t particularly good against the good competition either – his 17-30 and 170 yards opening the season in Columbus was actually fairly typical. Harrass him, contain his legs, and he can be forced into bad throws.
3. I seemingly say it every week, so one of these times it will prove true. The Longhorns just don’t have a good offensive line. They allow plenty of sacks and a lot of tackles in the backfield. The numbers would be even worse other than they have a good running back and a fairly crafty quarterback.
UT is 77th in sacks allowed and 99th in TFL’s allowed. They replaced a lot of their offensive line in the offseason, plus inserted a new QB with new tendencies, plus lost their 2 best receivers. No matter the scheme or play call, this will always cause some problems and growing pains. That being said, they were uncharacteristically good in their last game against Vandy, getting out to an eventually unsurmountable lead.
The Georgia pressure got to Blake Shapen early last week, and if we can do that again, we should be in good shape against an offense that hasn’t shown much ability to come from behind.
Now forgive me, as I was weaned at the nipple of Larry Munson’s scratch so here’s what does worry me about playing the Angus from Austin:
1. Texas is #2 run defense nationally. They’re allowing only 78 yards per opponent, only 6 rushing TDs, and only Florida and Kentucky were able to eclipse 100 yards (159 and 137 respectively).
Georgia is now running with purpose, and not just with Gunner Stockton. The Tiger Bulldog accounted for most of the rushing scores through the first half of the season, but that has changed. Some consistency on the offensive line rotation, guys playing more of their natural position, and the running backs starting to hit their holes.
But while the UGA run game is now clicking, that is also the basis for the passing game with play-action giving both space and matchups downfield for Stockton to target. If the Longhorn D stops the run, I worry it affects our tempo and ability to sustain drives. We found a way to win against Auburn and Florida when we couldn’t run, but this Texas team is objectively better than those two.
2 . We need Thor. This game on paper looks like a good defensive battle. And what happens when your opponent’s defense holds you in check? You punt. And Georgia Aussie punter Brett Thorson is one of the best. He will need to be at his best Saturday night, because Texas has an absolute weapon in returner Ryan Niblett.
The 5’10” Texan is elusive to say the least. He has two return touchdowns on the season – while impressive, touchdowns are often flukish in nature. But there is no fluke to the fact the man is averaging almost 25 yards a return. That means you kick it inside the Texas 20 – on average he brings it out almost to midfield. Not ideal. He has 5 games with over 50 yards just returning punts, and 4 games in excess of 70 yards. Thorson will need his directional and hang time best, and our gunners will need their best game to make sure this contest isn’t decided by Niblett.
3 . I have to again focus on the Texas defense. Their offense is mostly tempo and window dressing, which will be good prep for Georgia Tech, who also employs a lot of that (foreshadowing!). But the Bulldogs won last season’s contests with defense, and that is what Texas is living and dying by in 2025.
Specifically, there are some beasts on that side of the ball for the Longhorns. Anthony Hill Jr. is a wrecking machine. And he’s hungry! He’s top 10 in the country in forced fumbles from the LB spot, leads the team in tackles and is 2nd in sacks with 4. Then they have Colin Simmons coming off the edge, and he has 8 sacks on the season and also leads in tackles for loss. Ethan Burke is a taller, heavier version of Simmons from the other side. Plus they likely get senior safety and team captain Michael Taffe back from injury.
Call me crazy, just don’t call me late for dinner. Let us know in the comments what you’re feeling about the final conference game of the season. And as always…
GO ‘DAWGS!!!
