Here we go again. I was tempted to regurgitate this feature from the September meeting in Athens between the Beloved Bulldogs and Carcinogenic Crimson Tide, but decided otherwise. Both teams have changed, and their are other dynamics at play. So here’s why I’m NOT worried about the team from the Yellowhammer state that is now apparently scared of West Virginia football:
1. Let’s start with the obvious. Alabama isn’t a threat with the running game. Well, under normal circumstances. The Ryan Grubb rushing attack only exceeded 150 yards 3 times this season, and only once (158) against a Power4 team.
And they will run the ball in close games: 38 times vs. Georgia, Auburn, and Vandy; 33 times against Oklahoma even when they trailed. Georgia has given up the 6th least rushing yards in the nation, against the 2nd least attempts. That is because Georgia is either leading or controlling the time of possession. The good news is that Alabama will always try to run, and that Georgia is very good at stopping it no matter the time in the game or the position on the field.
2. Tyler Simmons was onsides. I mean, Tyler Simpson has regressed. In Alabama’s first 6 games, the redshirt junior was building a Heisman campaign. He was completing 71% of his passes with 16 scores and a single interception. Even in the opening loss at FSU, Simpson was more than serviceable – he didn’t throw an interception, passed for 2 scores, but faced a amped up Seminole defense and uncharacteristic drops by the Tide wideouts.
Fast forward to the last half of the season, and the brash hedge-trimmer has come down to earth. He’s throwing for 50 less yards a game, only has 9 passing TDs, and 3 interceptions. His completions are down a full 10 percentage points. He did face some decent defenses in LSU, Oklahoma, and Auburn, but those numbers are right in line with how he performed in Athens this September. The trend is good, our secondary is tightening up, and our pass rush has only gotten better.
3. Alabama’s defense looks to be pretty stout on 3rd down. They rank top 30 at allowing less than 35% conversions. But that doesn’t tell the whole story.
First, take away UGA’s horrid 3rd down performance, Missouri’s 1-11 attempt (without their starting QB), and that number jumps to 40%. So what happens when an offense doesn’t convert a 3rd down? Sometimes they go for it on 4th down. And Alabama has shown a weakness here. FSU was 2-2 on 4th, Wisconsin was 1-1 (albeit late). Missouri and Auburn were 2-3, while Tennessee was 4-5. South Carolina hit on both 4th down attempts. And while Kirby Smart doesn’t roll the dice a ton when faced with a 4th down, he usually converts (5th nationally at over 75%).
Now forgive me, as I was weaned at the nipple of Larry Munson’s scratch so here’s what does worry me about playing the bane of Georgia football:
1. Can we run on the Tide defense? When last we faced the Red Elephants, Gunner Stockton only had a handful of starts under his belt, the Georgia defense was still trying to figure itself out, and the offensive line had a different starting 5 every week. But Mike Bobo committed to the ground game, gaining 227 yards on only 33 carries. Can we do that again? We may need to if the air attack resembles the last couple of games.
Alabama is allowing less than 100 yards on the ground their last 4 conference games. And it wasn’t for lack of trying, as they faced an average of 32 attempts in those games. In a larger sample, if you take away Georgia and FSU, opponents have kept running the ball to only 3.5 yards a tote. Now with Drew Bobo a question mark, the Georgia offense that only managed less than 50 yards in the second half against Tech will face an even stouter front. Not to mention Tide DT Tim Keenan, who is more of a Saban-era DT and is looking forward to facing a patched-together OL.
We need to spread them out so our outside zone can work and we can get our guards to the 2nd level. They tend to rush 3-4 and we absolutely have to wall them off to get our backs in the holes and getting meaningful yardage.
2 . Alabama isn’t going to give this to us. They’re #10 in the nation, and #2 in the conference in time of possession. Since the Bulldogs are #1 in the SEC, don’t count on a lot of possessions in this contest. So Gunner Stockton et al. are going to have make these possessions count.
The Tide defend between 11-12 possessions per game. They force punts on half of those possessions, they get either a 4th down turnover or a fumble/pick on at least 1 more of those, which only leaves around 5 possessions to score. Over a third of those possessions result in a field goal try (thank goodness for Peyton Woodring). So Alabama is really only giving up around 2 touchdowns a game, which is scant. Georgia has got to take advantage of every possession – burn clock, score points, and keep their defense tired while their offense looks at tablets on the sideline.
3 . Games like this often come down to turnovers. Looking back at September, a 2Q fumble by UGA’s Nate Frazier, just after Georgia had scored a TD and forced a Bama punt, flipped the momentum and allowed a field goal that ultimately was the deciding score. Lest we forget, Carson Beck was in the giving mood during the 2024 game in Tuscaloosa, and those short fields were most certainly the difference on the scoreboard.
And turnovers were paramount in at least 3 more of Alabama’s games this season. If Diego Pavia doesn’t try to get cute with the ball deep in Bama territory, Vanderbilt has 2 more scoring chances. The same can be said about LaNorris Sellers and South Carolina, which was a 1 score game at the end. Auburn certainly sealed their own fate with a bad fumble early, and then a late thrown pick. And I don’t think Oklahoma wins without the 3 interceptions thrown by Tyler Simpson.
Both Georgia and Alabama generally take care of the ball. The difference is Alabama is both opportunistic and they force more turnovers. With interceptions thrown in the last 3 games, and 4 of the last 5, we will need mid-season Gunner Stockton and not the visibly shook November Gunner Stockton.
Call me crazy, just don’t call me late for dinner. Let us know in the comments what you’re feeling about trying to loose the chains we forged in previous gridiron encounters with the Tide. And as always…
GO ‘DAWGS!!!
