It’s reached the time of the season where we need to start sorting out which teams are actually good in 2025. The parity and randomness has been fun, but as we approach the playoffs it’s important to isolate the teams we actually think have a shot of making a real run to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, and who are the paper tigers waIt’s reached the time of the season where we need to start sorting out which teams are actually good in 2025. The parity and randomness has been fun, but as we approach the playoffs it’s important to isolate the teams we actually think have a shot of making a real run to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, and who are the paper tigers waiting to get bounced as soon as the playoffs begin.
Today we’re looking at every team in the league right now with a record of .500 or above, plus those who are within striking distance of coming back to win their division. We’re separating these into the obvious teams with the firepower to go all the way, those who are woefully lacking, plus a couple who are still so mystifying that we don’t really know.
Patriots — Contender
I’ve waited as long as possible to write this blurb, in an effort to avoid cries of blatant homerism.
I cannot wait any longer.
Even the most hardened Patriots hater has to concede that right now, in the topsy-turvy 2025 NFL season, the Patriots are contenders. Beating the Buffalo Bills on the road was the first sign, but going into Tampa Bay and knocking off the Buccaneers last weekend was another big test that Drake Maye and company passed with flying colors.
They have a point differential of +73 (third-most in the AFC), and a favorable schedule heading down the stretch. They have a two-game lead on the Bills in the win column, with a victory in hand.
And yes, they have an MVP candidate in Maye.
Bills — Who knows?
The Bills simply aren’t as good as they’ve been in the past. This iteration of the team is woefully light at receiver and defensive back, without doing anything at the trade deadline to solidify these positions. There have been times in 2025 that Buffalo looked like it would walk into the Super Bowl out of the AFC, then moments where they lose to the Dolphins or Falcons, making you question everything about them.
Josh Allen and James Cook are their aces in the hole. As long as Buffalo has that firepower there’s always a chance, but we need to see a lot more from Buffalo down the stretch to be convinced they have a chance to compete this year.
Steelers — Pretender
There’s a decent chance the Steelers will win the AFC North by default, but that shouldn’t be mistaken with this team being particularly good. Aaron Rodgers can’t point blame all he likes, but he’s played only slightly better than he did with the Jets when they were one of the worst teams in the NFL.
This team has a middling offense (16th in points scored, 29th in yards) and a bad defense (20th in points allowed, 28th in yards allowed). These should not be the figures of a team that’s winning its division and on the verge of heading to the playoffs. Pittsburgh is a team that’s destined to be bounced in the Wild Card round — assuming they make it to the postseason at all.
Ravens — Pretender
With Lamar Jackson back under center there’s always a chance, but we can’t ignore the fact that the defense was really, really bad before Jackson was injured — and they remain bad. It’s true they’ve won three in a row, but that came against the Vikings, Dolphins, and Bears, not exactly world-beaters.
Five of Baltimore’s games have come against prospective playoff teams, and they lost them all. If this team can find a way into the postseason they need to become an entirely different unit defensively, and they just don’t have that in 2025.
Colts — Contender
Against all odds the Colts are here. We’ve been waiting for the better part of the season to see Indianapolis regress to the mean, and that hasn’t happened. This is just a really good football team, and we can’t ignore that any more.
Is Daniel Jones an elite quarterback? Hell no, but you don’t need an elite passer to win in the NFL this year if you have a great running game, which Jonathan Taylor has supplied. Indianapolis boasts the league’s best offense, and a mid-tier defense which is enough to drive them to wins when they can eat the clock on the ground like they do.
It’s risky to have faith in Danny Dimes to deliver in a big game, but Shane Steichen has this team rolling — and there’s no reason to doubt them.
Jaguars — Pretender
There is very little impressive about the Jaguars this season, and that’s okay because year one of a new coach should be about development, not contention. This team is winning in spite of Trevor Lawrence, not because of him — and that’s led to a team that’s 18th in points scored, and 20th in points allowed this year.
Impressive wins over Kansas City and San Francisco feel like an eon ago when you’re fighting with the Raiders in overtime, then lose to the a Texans team led by Davis Mills. The AFC is open enough to land Jacksonville a playoff spot, but they are not a contender by any stretch of the imagination.
Texans — Pretender
The saving grace for the Texans is that they keep their losses close. The issue is that there are far too many of them. C.J. Stroud could return from injury and boost the team, but it’s hard to see them being that much better with him on the field.
Houston’s glaring weakness is its offensive line, which we knew would be a problem entering 2025. Stroud doesn’t have enough time in the pocket, and the line can’t set the edge to get the running backs going. What Houston does have is a brutally effective defense, but some of the raw figures are a little misleading due to the competition they’ve faced.
Broncos — Who knows?
This is a weird, weird football team. Denver has a great defense, and have beaten some good competition — but also struggled against sub-par opponents. Bo Nix has a habit this season of being ho-hum for three quarters, then performing in the 4th, and while it makes for great drama, it’s a cold comfort.
Denver should easily make the playoffs at 8-2 right now. The issue is that they’re so unpredictable it’s impossible to guess what they’ll do when they arrive. These next weeks could decide whether or not they’re ready to take the next step.
Chargers — Who knows?
Death, taxes, and the Los Angeles Chargers remaining one of the league’s most confounding teams.
Some weeks, the Chargers look legitimate. Such as when they came back to beat the Broncos, or their opening-week win over the Chiefs.
But this is also a team with losses to the Commanders and the Giants. They almost lost to the Dolphins, and beat the Titans by a touchdown.
Honestly, ask us at Christmas. The Chargers take on the Eagles on Monday Night Football to close out Week 14, and then have their rematch with the Chiefs in Kansas City on December 14. Those two games will tell us much more than I can right now.
Chiefs — Contender
Count out the Chiefs at your peril. We’ve been down this road before, though admittedly this feels different that past years. Things look much, much more difficult for Patrick Mahomes on offense when we’re used to his effortless brilliance. Still, this team has a Top 10 offense and defense, meaning they have a shot to make noise.
No team is better at prepping for the playoffs than Kansas City. We fully expect them to be a force in the postseason once more — assuming they can get there.
Eagles — Contender
At some point, we might just have to accept that this is the recipe in Philadelphia.
The offense at times looks disjointed. A.J. Brown continues to post cryptic messages on social media. Nick Sirianni makes some head-scratching decisions. Howie Roseman works the phones in the background, and as we start to wonder if the Eagles have another run in them, they keep winning.
Rinse and repeat.
Lions — Contender
Last winter we wondered if brain drain was going to be an issue in Detroit. Aaron Glenn was off to New York to coach the Jets, and Ben Johnson finally took the head coaching job in front of him, traveling west on I-94 to take over the Chicago Bears.
Probably with a stop at a Portillo’s along the way.
But as we have learned over the past few days, an important brain remained with Dan Campbell. The head coach took over play-calling duties last week against the Washington Commanders, and the result was a 44-22 win that, coupled with the Packers’ loss on Monday night, moved the Lions back into first place in the NFC North.
A huge game looms this weekend, as the Lions take on the Eagles. But they’re back, and as long as Campbell is on the sideline, they’ll likely be contenders.
Bears — Pretender
There’s definite promise in Chicago, but let’s not kid ourselves. This team is too inconsistent to have any faith in, and the jury is still out on whether or lot Caleb Williams can be a Ben Johnson quarterback.
It’s awesome that the Bears have won six of their last seven. It’s decidedly less awesome when you realize the bulk of those wins came against the Raiders, Saints, Ravens (without Lamar), Bengals, and Giants. Basically this team is winning the games they should, and losing the games they should. Looking at the remaining schedule they should be a 10+ team win — but against one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.
Buccaneers — Contender
A strike against the Buccaneers is their point differential. Entering Week 10 the Buccaneers have a point differential of +14, as they’ve won close games against the Jets, the Texans, and the Falcons. They’ve also lost to the Lions and the Eagles.
But the loss to Philadelphia required the Eagles to deliver some game-changing plays on special teams, and Tampa Bay also went into Seattle and beat the Seahawks, a “quality win” if there ever was one. They have been banged up and are starting to get healthy, and despite last Sunday’s loss to the Patriots, they are still in good shape.
The next two weeks are huge, however, with trips to Buffalo and to Los Angeles to take on the Rams.
Panthers — Pretender
The good news is that Carolina matched its win total from a year ago already. The bad news is that this team is a mess with injuries and inconsistency. It’s been fun to see Rico Dowdle tear through the NFL, but the passing game is a mess with a revolving door of injuries that have led to the Panthers playing eight different starting offensive lines in 10 games.
Bryce Young has been pressures too much as a result, and this team has no verticality. Moreover, we just haven’t seen Young take that next step many hopes for based on his tear at the end of the 2024 season. He’s not as bad as he was to start 2024, but he’s not great either. If this team can find a way into the playoffs they’re bound to be bounced quickly.
Seahawks — Contender
Seattle is legit. Sunday against the Rams might be one of the best games of the season:
Sam Darnold has put himself in the MVP discussion, and once they start getting Rashid Shaheed involved more in the passing game, watch out.
Rams — Contender
If you are a believer in Expected Points Added, then this chart is likely all you need to see:
Again, Rams-Seahawks this weekend is must-watch television.
49ers — Who knows?
If fully healthy, the San Francisco 49ers are contenders.
The fact that they are even in the discussion is a testament to the job the coaching staff is doing in San Francisco.
They’ve managed to stay afloat even with these injuries, and they may get Brock Purdy back this week. Now look at their upcoming schedule: San Francisco heads to Arizona this week, they host Carolina the next week, they visit the Browns the following week, and then after their bye, they host the Titans.
They might be 6-4 and out of the playoffs right now, but they could be 10-4 before you know it. And with a win over Seattle in Week 1, who knows what will be at stake when those teams meet again to close out the regular season.
